Rangers Season Preview

First off, on the subject of mis-leading and patently false titles to an article, the DMN gives us this gem, that Texas Rangers' Hicks Shows He's Serious About Winning. The thesis being that because Hicks ate the $6m necessary to cut Frank Catalanatto (the first time I can remember him ever eating any money.....), he's suddenly committed to winning. Please, this is nothing but a business to Hicks and the best thing that could ever happen to this franchise would be Hicks selling it. But I digress, we've got just a few days until opening day, and I thought it appropriate to do a little Rangers season preview.

Yes, I know they will probably be lousy. Yes, they usually are. That said, hope springs eternal as they say, and for the first time in many years there are atleast a few reasons to be hopeful as a Rangers fan. Last week I detailed why it is I keep coming back, today I write about why I do have hope for this season, nevermind the fact that at this stage of every season I have (false) hope. That's the past, and this is now. First off, the roster changes: Milton Bradley is gone despite a quite productive season (when healthy), Kris Benson (and his hot wife) is in, as is Andruw Jones. "Everyday" Eddie Guardado is back as well. As far as "big names" that's it, the rest of the changes relate to seasoning of players and maturation of prospects.

The opening day rotation for your Texas Rangers is Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, Kris Benson, Brandon McCarthy, and Matt Harrison. Now is that going to knock your socks off? Hell no. But you've got Millwood and Padilla in contract years (historically they perform there), Benson trying to improve his stock after a couple injury plagued seasons, McCarthy apparently healthy, and Harrison (who came over in the Texeira trade) as the best of the young starters. After the Rangers went through 17 starting pitchers last year it's a given that health is priority number one, that said if they can maintain some semblance of health out of this rotation I think it can serve as an average rotation. Sure the ERAs will be high, but they should have good offensive production to fall back on and if they can just eat some innings so as not to overwork the bullpen and stay healthy enough not to force management's hand on bringing up prospects too early, it should be serviceable.

Player to watch: Vicente Padilla. Yes, he's a nut case....we've seen him throw at hitters and get himself ejected before the end of the first inning, and we've heard the stories of how he grates on teammates, but in his last contract year he was 15-10 with a 4.50 ERA in 33 games (200 IP) and that was in Arlington on a lousy club. If he projects out anywhere near that this year, you should be more than satisfied with him as no. 2. It's also worth noting that in his last contract year, Kevin Millwood won the AL ERA.

The Rangers bullpen will consist of Scott Feldman, Warner Madrigal, Eddie Guardado, Jason (not Greg) Jennings, C.J. Wilson, Josh Rupe, and Frankie Francisco (with Willie Eyre and Dustin Nippert starting the season on the DL). And while the picture isn't completely clear, Francisco has been tabbed the closer and Feldman/Jennings as the long relievers. Wilson and Guardado should serve as the set-up guys with Madrigal and Rupe as the extra arms. Reports out of camp have been that Francisco has thrived in the closer role, though whether he can suitably fill the role that's been effectively vacant since Francisco Cordero (I don't count Eric Gagne since he was a rent-a-player) is anyone's guess-though if he stumbles one could assume that Guardado or Wilson could fill in as a stop-gap. Feldman and Jennings are former starters, and Rupe led the AL last season in innings pitched. Again, this staff won't win any beauty pageants....but if the players stay healthy and live up to their billing....it should be serviceable.

Player to watch: Frank Francisco is best know for the chair-throwing incident in 2005, but lost in that notoriety was his efficacy as a reliever before injuries set him back. The Rangers brass has tapped him as the new closer, and if he can fill that role then the rest of the pieces in the bullpen fall into place. His success will be the most important factor in determining how good the Rangers bullpen is.

And finally, this leads us to the Rangers lineup. Courtesy of Inside Corner we know that the Rangers opening day lineup will consist of 2B Ian Kinsler, 3B Michael Young, CF Josh Hamilton (L), RF Nelson Cruz, DH Hank Blalock (L), LF Marlon Byrd, 1B Chris Davis, C Jarrod Saltalamacchia, SS Elvis Andrus.

Kinsler and Hamilton were studs last year, and despite the position change one would expect Young to be himself and hit ~.300. The wildcards here are Cruz who tore it up at the end of last season and throughout the spring, Blalock who hasn't looked himself in a few years, and Salty who gets the nod over Taylor Teagarden due to a nice offensive spring but about whom questions remain. Byrd is expected to platoon with David Murphy and Andruw Jones, Chris Davis showed promise last season but questions exist about whether he can thrive at this level, and Andrus is expected to struggle to adjust at the plate.

That said, like every other season I can remember of Rangers baseball, the production should be there. It's a pretty damn good lineup, especially at the front end....the question is just whether or not the pitching staff can make the runs holdup.

Player to watch: Nelson Cruz has been a career 4A guy, one of those players that was too good for AAA baseball, but couldn't adjust to the big leagues. In a late season call up last season he was very good though, and he followd up that success this spring with more success. He's out of options, so this is his last chance to sink of swim. If Cruz has finally come around as his recent performance suggests-he's a hell of a power hitter-then the blow of losing Milton Bradley to free agency will be considerably softened and the Rangers lineup will be downright nasty-few teams look forward to facing a lineup with Kinsler, Young, Hamilton, and a good Cruz anchoring it.

In the end, this is considered to be the last "building year" before the fruit of a highly rated minor league system begins to bear fruit. Highly touted pitchers Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland are expected to mature to the big league club by the end of this season, as is 1B Justin Smoak as Andrus and Chris Davis mature further. We've heard the "rebuilding" song and dance out of Arlington for a while now, but it seems the plan is finally nearing fruition. Last I'd checked Vegas put the over/under for Rangers wins at 74.5 and I think the over bet there is a good one, expecting them to finish somewhere between 80-87 wins. Will that be enough to make the playoffs? I doubt it. But it should serve to atleast provide us, the Rangers fans, with atleast a little hope that better days are nearing.